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How accurate are the NBA betting theories, what do you think of them?
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What are NBA betting theories exactly and how do they work? Do you believe that great bettors are considering this theories? How accurate are the NBA betting theories?
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03.12.2014, 09:27
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It is hard to look at the big picture some times, because now, everyone with an internet connection can post online his own NBA betting strategy and claim that his strategy is the best one out there.

While we can't argue his point of view, we are going to say that the NBA strategies' list isn't complete, and we expect to see it grow even more.

Anyway, this is not the point here. The point is that some strategies and theories in NBA Basketball work and there are some basic NBA betting strategy concepts that we can see in all the strategies.

The theory that I embrace states that you must avoid the big favorites. Mainly because they tend to be inflated due to public perception. And I think that all the bettors out there should consider this theory and include it in their own betting strategy.
03.12.2014, 13:49
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Betting1990
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You are right, one of the best advice one can give for NBA strategies is to fade big favorites. But there is another thing that you have to keep in mind. The other basic NBA betting strategy concept is that you must bet small to medium underdogs.

Betting small to medium underdogs can be profitable over the haul. That's especially the case when we're talking about home dogs. Home court advantage still matters, and when you couple it with matchups and situations like fatigue, those short pups can be ripe for the picking.
08.12.2014, 14:04
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I'd say that they are pretty accurate, because are simple statements that happened pretty often when betting on NBA, so they are more common sense than just theories and in my opinion you should definitely need to consider them.

I know one, which happened to work for me. Square bettors tend to think of teams as the same all the time, but from a statistical perspective, there can be wide variations in performance at home as opposed to on the road. So as a bettor, you need to keep in mind that you always have to make the difference between home and road splits.
09.12.2014, 13:08
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A very important theory to consider was the NBA zig-zag theory. For many years this theory was money in the bank when it came to betting the NBA playoffs. But as is the case with nearly every successful sports gambling system, it become too popular for its own good, and since 2000 is a losing proposition.

The rationale behind the system makes sense. A team is likely to fight harder coming after a loss. And this was the simple statement on which the theory was based on.

The system started out great, but like the Monday night home underdog in the NFL, it started being used by many bettors and in the past eight years is 260-240, as the line is now adjusted to factor in the theory.
 
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