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Is betting playoff baseball much different than wagering MLB regular season?
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I personally think it is a difference, but I am not sure how to act on it. So if you guys have any ideas, can you help me to place the correct bets and don't lose money just to learn. What do you think, is betting playoff baseball much different than wagering MLB regular season?
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02.12.2014, 10:22
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Yeah, you got this one right. It is different in many ways, even though the teams are the same the matches are not and the teams expectations are different from what they will become as the season goes on. The thing is that if you don't pay attention to this differences, you may find yourself loosing more bets than you win this postseason.

The games are more public, and this has an important impact on the line movement and also on the quality of the lines and totals. It is a big difference to bet between 15 games virtually every day and a couple of huge games daily. So you might want to keep this thing in mind. Because for the huge games you will receive even greater tips and analysis done by some valuable bettors, while for the 15 games played daily the amount of information available will be simply not as good as the one for that one single match which is followed of a lot of fans and bet on.
02.12.2014, 10:42
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Of course there is a big difference between playoff betting and regular season betting. There are more one-run games in the playoffs, making the runline a more viable alternative than in the regular season. If you think about it, during the regular season, about 25 percent of the games are on-run games. But in the playoffs the number is close to 40%.

Anyway, you have to consider that playoff betting means more public input on the lines. So My advice is to bet on the underdogs, because this is often the best plan.
02.12.2014, 12:38
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It is indeed a big difference and after all, it makes sense, because more is on the line in the playoffs. Managers that are content to rest players and pitchers in the regular season don't have the same luxury in the playoffs.

Anyway, pitching depth is a key predictor of which teams are set to succeed in the payoffs.
03.12.2014, 13:38
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Betting1990
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The teams are playing different playoffs than regular season. This is a fact, so this is the main reason because it is a big difference also between betting playoffs and regular season.

You definitely have to remember one thing tough. Know which clubs are hot, and which are not heading into playoffs. A team can be 100-62, but if they were mediocre down the stretch, chances are they'll have some early hiccups in the Division Series. On the other hand teams that scratched and clawed to get in tend to be better bets - especially in the early going.

19.01.2015, 08:59
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I believe too that between playoffs and regular season is a big difference. Of course there is, but there is also a difference on the way you should act on it if you choose to bet MLB.

In my opinion if you've invested or bet on MLB over the years on both regular baseball season and playoffs, you've likely seen how the MLB playoffs are a much different beast than the regular season, and how an adjustment to your betting strategy and MLB playoffs picks is required to adjust for the change in temperament.

What I personally do is check the history. If you do this you'll find the importance of how team health and their momentum have played well into the playoff series. For example, in the last decade, teams with the better record have had the advantage in the World Series.

Most MLB handicappers understand this in their baseball predictions, and the online sportsbooks take this into account in their lines. If you look at the last 10 World Series, the baseball teams with the better record have gone 50%. But the public and average MLB bettor neglect this but is a key performance indicator the Sharp and MLB investors pick up on quickly.
19.01.2015, 09:29
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betCLEVER I see you came back with more research on this one. I totally agree with you, Most MLB handicappers understand this in their baseball predictions, and the online sportsbooks take this into account in their lines.

So why then haven't the bettor teams taken the series? If one team is strong enough to edge their opponent 55% of te time in the regular season, the underdog will win a seven game series 40% of the time. But if the favorite can edge out its opponent, then on average 66% of the times they play each other the underdog will still win a 7 game series in about one of every 5 match-ups.

Now, in the 66% or 2 of 3 probability, the sports bettor will need to play the playoffs series at a minimum of 23 games to determine the winner; which is considered a statistical significance. Well, to simplify this, for your MLB picks, it means the weaker team would take the World Series 5% of the time, or less.
 
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