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When it is the perfect moment to bet on heavy underdogs?
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A lot of bettors, most of them, don't like betting on heavy underdogs on the moneyline. They equate the large potential payouts with a high amount of risk and a low chance of paying off, and they look elsewhere. But still, when it is the perfect moment to bet on heavy underdogs?
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05.02.2015, 11:14
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Savyer
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If you are a bettor then you know that the power of underdogs is easy to understand. They pay off so well that they don't have to win very often to make a profit.

A +200 underdog only has to win one-third of the time for your to brake even, and at +300 the required winning rate is just 25 percent.

But the things are not that great every time. The problem is that teams often aren't capable of winning at a high enough rate to create a profit, so you slowly go broke by betting on them. The trick is to be able to assess when a heavy underdog is a sound bet, and when it is not.


10.02.2015, 09:53
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dealerDell
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In my opinion underdogs are more attractive the more value they offer, in other words, the bigger the gap between their chances of winning and the risk you are taking by making the bet.

Anyway, one of the bet ways to find value is when the public doesn't give a team nearly enough credit. For underdogs that happens most suggesting that you should just blindly bet on the underdog every time the public enthusiastically and heavily backs a favorite.

Now here's the catch most of casual bettors are missing. When the public is heavily on a favorite then the books will adjust the odds accordingly to make that favorite less attractive in order to minimize their risk. When the favorite is less attractive then it would be in a normal circumstance, then it stands to reason that the odds for the underdog are going to be more attractive then they normally would be.
10.02.2015, 12:01
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leveller1bet
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When the odds makers release the odds for the first time, they are set based on what the public perception of a game is expected to be. Because the public relies more on perceptions and obvious signs of performance than on subtleties.

That means that is very possible that the public won't take note of a match up that is actually quite favorable for the underdogs. For example, maybe an underdog in baseball is playing a far superior team, but they have been struggling against lefties. If both teams is starting lefties then you have an opportunity for value.
10.02.2015, 12:58
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StetOC_nA
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Perhaps a football favorite has a very strong defense, but they have been less impressive when they have seen an option-oriented favorite like they will face in the game in question. The public likely wouldn't clue into either situation.

Now this situation as well can make the underdogs more attractive than they should be.

But it can be a difference in the motivation as well, a big factor that might make you consider the underdog. If a game has heavy favorite then chances are pretty good that if both teams were playing their absolute best then the favorite would win. If you watch a lot of sports, then you know that teams sometimes don't play anything close to their best game.
11.02.2015, 08:45
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Parso6
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There are times when this matches come up like a total surprise. And all because of the difference between motivation.

Other times though, you can make a guess before the game starts that one team will be significantly more motivated than the other. The most common example of this would be late in the season when the favorite has clinched a playoff spot or is all but certain to do so.

They will definitely be favored if they were playing with a modified roster, though, using young players instead of their usual ones in an attempt to see where they are at for the next season.

Those young players could play at full intensity in an attempt to prove themselves and earn a job and they could especially be motivated because they are playing against a good team.
 
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