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Why should I care about key numbers and how can they help me in betting?
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What are key numbers and why are these numbers important in betting? I maybe use them but I didn't know that they go by this name. Can someone explain why should I care about key numbers and how they can help me in betting?
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11.12.2014, 13:05
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bafann88
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Key numbers are margins of victory in the NFL and NBA. Due to the nature of scoring in the NFL, the key numbers are much more obvious and apparent.

The biggest key number in football is 3. Games that are tied late are often settled with a game-winning field goal as teams often play much more conservatively and go for the field goal instead of the touchdown, once they get within scoring range.

15.01.2015, 10:13
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veldhusir_tipser
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I'm with bafann88 at this one, but also the other most common key number in NFL games is 7. This makes obvious sense, considering touchdowns are worth seven points. So if a team is up by seven near the end of the game, the other team will most probably go for a touchdown, since a field goal will do them no good.

But if they fail to score that touchdown, the winning team can simply run out the dock and secure their 7-point win.
15.01.2015, 14:18
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It is important to know which are the key numbers because sportsbooks are hesitant in moving spreads away from key numbers, especially the extremely common 3-point spread. Instead all that you see is the price adjusted as an alternative, for example: If San Francisco -3.0 -110 is receiving a lot more action than Seattle +3.0 -110, you could see the prices move to San Francisco -3.0 -120 and Seattle +3.0 +100.

This happens because sportsbooks don't want to move off of a key number like the 3-point spread, because if they move San Francisco for example at -3.5 and get a lot of action on St. Louis +3.5, a 3-point San Francisco -3.0 would be a push while they'd have to pay out all of the St. Louis 3.5 action.
15.01.2015, 15:32
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Ever wonder why 3 and 7 are the key numbers for NFL Handicaps? From data collected since the start of the NFL, back in 1920, a massive 11.8% of games have finished with a winning margin of 3 points. Right after this, the second most common was 7 points (7.4%) while the third most frequent was 10 points with 5.7 percent rate.

The reason behind this raising is the NFL scoring. For instance, three points are awarded for a field goal, while 7 points is the amount awarded for a touchdown and a successful conversion.

I say that you should care for this key numbers because they affect betting. If you know them use them! First of all you can use them as a barometer for what side of a handicap provides the best value. But in order to do so, you have to understand the line movement.

Also key numbers affects alternate markets, where bettors should be careful when buying points across key numbers. Keep in mind that bookmakers will often charge a lot to buy a point in your favor across a key number.
 
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